With the BRIC economies gradually becoming irrelevant, a new group of emerging economies has caught the attention of the investors. The MIST nations — Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey — are the four biggest markets in the Goldman Sachs equity fund named GSYAX. These economies more than doubled in size in the past decade overtaking Germany last year. The common parameters that put these economies together are a large population, significant share of global GDP and common membership of G -20.

Jim O’Neill , of Goldman Sachs who coined the new acronym  said “ the MIST nations each account for at least 1 percent of global GDP and are likely to see that share increase this decade” Of the four countries, O’Neill said Mexico and Turkey have the most potential. Although the MIST nations have outperformed the BRIC nations by growth rate, they are much smaller in comparison to the BRICS in absolute size or population. Total GDP for the MIST nations was $3.9 trillion in 2012, which is less than one third of the $13.5 trillion BRIC economies. China alone had a GDP of 7.3 trillion according to Bloomberg. The MIST nations also have less than 500 million people, compared with a population size of 2.9 billion in the BRIC nations.

Despite being smaller in size, all the MIST nations have a stable domestic consumption with significant investment in infrastructure. Internet and mobile usage has significantly increased in these economies. All four economies ranked higher than the BRIC countries on the Geneva-based World Economic Forum’s 2012 trade openness index.

South Korea was ranked 34 out of 132 and Indonesia 58th. By contrast the earlier giants like Russia was much lower in position 112 and India at 100. The strengths of these nations are low labour costs especially in Mexico, a growing retail and manufacturing industry and strong exports. Mexico, Latin America’s second-biggest economy, recorded huge auto exports which helped it to outpace Brazil for a second year. This was in spite of a slow Chinese market. Indonesia has the fourth largest population in the world and is Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Although GDP per capita is only $4,880, Indonesia has potential domestic market with a strong middle class. Indonesia’s economic growth accelerated to 6.37%last year. It was fuelled by increase in domestic spending and investment. Indonesia has an added strength of being a financial centre for many Investment banks, as well as a growing energy sector. In Turkey, double digit growth in exports due to an increased focus on Africa and Middle East has helped generate growth.  A strong pool of entrepreneurial talent has diversified the Turkish economy. Turkey also has a strategic position of being a natural bridge between Europe and Asia. Turkey also boasts of tourism as a major revenue earner and its unsaturated markets are a hot destination for the FDI. The fastest growing economy in this group is South Korea with a per capita GDP of $ 27,000. South Korea has emerged as one of the fastest growing nations of OECD with a strong focus on R&D and retail. South Korea stands a little differently than the other three nations on parameters such as demographics, development and growth. South Korea was an emerging market almost twenty years ago and hence its inclusion in the group is debatable. South Korea lacks the young population of the other economies. Only 16% of the population is below the age group of 15 compared to 25% in the other MIST nations. However South Korea’s growth trajectory has been sharper than all the other three countries making it a role model.

Although the initial exuberating with the MIST economies is justified, the future projection needs to be realistic. The challenges to the MIST nations are varied. While Mexico faces the highest rate of corruption and organized crime, Indonesia faces a very complex regulatory environment and insufficient infrastructure.  South Korea’s aging population makes it heavily reliant on exports and thus vulnerable to global cycles. Turkey on the other hand faces a large current account deficit despite a growing tourism industry. Mexico suffers from sluggish investment, high vulnerability to global disturbances and high interest rates. The IMF projects the Mexican economy to grow 3 percent next year. According to IMF , Indonesia’s economic growth will slow to between 5 percent and 5.5 percent in 2014 -15 , compared with 6.2 percent last year .The Current account deficit is also expected to widen to 3.5% of GDP . Suitable fiscal and monetary policies in Turkey have stabilized growth rates to 3.8% although the current account deficits have increased and inflation is outside tolerance limits. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised down the 2014 growth outlook for South Korea, due to exposure to global economic downturn.

Despite these reality checks, each of the MIST countries has potential for growth. The BRIC economies are plagued by excessive dependence on global demand especially China and Brazil. The high costs and administrative obstacles dissuade the foreign investor. Country specific issues such as lack of infrastructure in Brazil and India, the authoritative regime in Russia and the vulnerability of China speak of insufficient attention to the investor. In contrast, the cost advantage in manufacturing seen in Mexico, the young population in Turkey with the strong services sector, and the size of the domestic market in Indonesia are catalysts for future growth. With appropriate fiscal and monetary policies any mist on these countries’ future can be removed and the new bloc of emerging economies can satiate the investors’ appetite.

Contributed by Prof.Swaha Shome and Prof. Davinder Suri (Faculty, IBS Mumbai)

When you decide to take up the post-graduate program in management, you are faced with several issues including:

• the choice of B-school from among the several available options
• the choice and availability of your electives for specialization at the B-school of your choice
• the placement track record of the B-school
• the industry interface of the shortlisted B-schools
• the teaching methodology used
• the presence of well-qualified and experienced faculty
• the infrastructure
• the industry perception of your choice of B-school and
• the fee structure

In addition to the above parameters, there is yet another area that needs your attention.You need to decide upon the geographical location, from where you want to pursue the MBA program with respect to the professional avenues it holds for you. With many business schools having their presence in different cities across the country, you may find yourself confused over your choice of B-school and its respective location.

Prior to your zeroing-in on a location for pursuing the management program, you must be clear about your prospects from the MBA program and how it will equip you to achieve your goals in life. To help you take this decision, let us focus on the implications that the geographic location of a business school can have on your career path and professional as well as personal growth.

Some locations hold more relevance from the placements perspective based on different industry verticals. Some studies and researches have indicated that cities located in Western India may offer better opportunities when it comes to overseas placements particularly in the Middle-East.For individuals aspiring to take up positions with the global firms in the overseas business environment, the cities of Mumbai and Pune emerge as the most desired places. Pune offers ample professional avenues in the IT industry to give your career the needed head-start.It also has a number of automobile companies, especially the leading car manufacturers of the world.

If you are willing to study international business as a specialized discipline during the course of your management program, Mumbai, being a port city, could be a good choice that can help you secure a job offer in the global market. Likewise, if your interest lies in making a career in finance, Mumbai, the financial capital of India, is the perfect destination for you to give your profession the much needed boost. Also, with the major players in the corporate segment headquartered in Mumbai, it has evolved as a centre abounding in finance jobs catering to different management levels.

Information technology (IT) as a management specialization is the foremost choice of the aspirants, especially when they come from a background in Information Technology, such as Bachelor in Computer Applications or an engineering degree in computer science. Bangalore, also known as the IT hub of India, gives you the chance to explore the immense potential that it has with a sizeable presence of leading software companies in the city. The capital city of Karnataka will give you ample opportunities to tap your technical talent. Moreover, this IT city offers you the chance to be employed with a small entrepreneurial venture in a challenging role, or be a part of the large software enterprise having a firm hold in the market.

Dubbed as the cyber city of India, Hyderabad is another important destination with respect to the prospects and potential it holds for the aspirants looking forward to a role in the Information Technology industry.These IT cities of Bangalore and Hyderabad have emerged as the most sought after places with respect to the various employment avenues they offer in the IT industry and the quality of work culture, according to recent trends.

There may be some who, after completion of their management program, would like to explore the career choices in the manufacturing sector. Getting an opportunity to be employed with a manufacturing plant gives you a chance to see and understand the processes involved in the different units of the plant. Moreover, your knowledge of project management can come in handy in planning, scheduling, risk management, quality management, quality assurance and quality control of the various manufacturing processes.

Ahmedabad, being one of the highly industrialized cities of Gujarat, unlocks a world of opportunities for you to exploit your competencies in different verticals of the manufacturing sector,which include textiles, chemicals, fertilizers, electrical engineering, petrochemicals, and cement. Another location which has emerged as the industrial hub of north India is Gurgaon in Haryana. An important part of the National Capital Region (NCR), the city surely holds promises for those interested in making a career in the manufacturing industry with an increasing number of industries setting up their manufacturing units here.

Another pertinent issue that may come in the way of your thought process while choosing the right geographical location to pursue a management program is whether you want to stay closer to or away from home? There are aspirants who do not want to join a business school of repute having its campus in their native town. One of the main reasons cited for this trend is that during the two-year management program,the students get to know about different cultures and get to live and bond with students coming from different parts of the country.

Living away from home can also help imbibe a lot of confidence as you get your first lessons on self-management through your personal experiences. After all, the management program is aimed at transforming your inherent characteristics into the most preferred attributes of the business market, self-confidence being an important aspect of your personality. Staying away from your home or city also helps to widen your horizons through a learning experience with respect to the prevalent cultures and customs of your country.

So, we can conclude that your choice of the geographic location of a B-school can have long-term implications on your career.If you base your decision on your interest areas for the various industry verticals, it can go on to be a stepping stone to success in your corporate endeavours. So, think, analyse, prioritize, and then decide which city should be the best possible option for you to pursue the management program.

 

Five currencies have been named by Morgan Stanley as the ‘Fragile Five’ – the Brazilian real, the Indonesian rupiah, the South African rand, the Indian rupee, and the Turkish lira. The ‘Fragile Five’ economies are finding it increasingly difficult to attract foreign capital to finance trade deficits hence appear to be vulnerable to the much anticipated tapering of the Fed. High inflation, weakening growth, large external deficits, high dependence on fixed income inflows and also slowing down of China, make these economies and therefore currencies vulnerable.

The fragility appears in the emerging economies at large. This can be attributed to the sudden divergence in growth rates of the emerging economies and the developed economies. With the U.S. growing at an annual rate of 4.1 percent in the third quarter of 2013, with the manufacturing and employment figures moving north and strong, with the purchasing managers’ index for U.S. jumping to 57 percent in January 2014, the world has a stronger and power packed U.S. dollar.   The currency market has also witnessed surprising gains in Japan’s yen, the Swiss franc and the Euro. Compare this to developing-nation industrial output being at a four-year low with China’s slowdown cutting demand for everything from Brazilian iron ore to Malaysian palm oil. Emerging countries accounted for nine of the 10 worst performers among 31 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg, 54 percent of companies in the MSCI Emerging Market Index of stocks have reported second-quarter earnings that trailed analysts’ forecasts compared with 35 percent for members of the developed-economy MSCI World Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

All the emerging economies are vulnerable to the fears of capital outflows after the Fed’s tapering. The ‘Fragile Five’ have been hand picked from amongst the already vulnerable lot. These are the five emerging economies with weak fundamentals, especially those with “twin deficits” in their budgets and current accounts, weak growth rate compounded by one more common factor that adds to their vulnerability that is the imminent scheduled elections. This last element in the list of weaknesses draws the common thread in the ‘Fragile Five’ that brings in the risk in the economic environment leaving them exposed to tapering.

Brazil has been slow in bracing itself for the tapering. It is already burdened with a growing government budget deficit and inflation. Brazil has resorted to using price controls on fuel to arrest inflation. Brazilian real had fallen by more than 15 percent each since the Fed’s announcement in May 2013. Tough structural unpopular measures are not likely to be implemented until after the election. Easy money till recently has escalated the amount of debt where the credit to the private sector has doubled in the past five years to 50% of GDP. Any new reforms taken now will lead to a weaker currency, higher inflation and higher interest rates.

India has been worst hit in terms of its currency in August 2013 in anticipation of the Fed taper. Although fears over the impact of the taper have been assuaged through measures adopted by the Reserve Bank of India with a stringent control on gold imports, opening a  special foreign-exchange swap window to provide dollars to state-run oil refiners has taken some pressure off the rupee  coupled with a scheme designed to attract savings investment from Indian expatriates. Currently is bogged down with rising inflation and falling industrial production, persistent fiscal deficit and recently controlled current account deficit. In order to check the fiscal deficit, the planned government spending has been drastically reduced with long term repercussions on growth and unemployment. Turkey’s vulnerability stems from paucity of foreign direct investment along with low level of labour participation and a sliding savings rate. Turkey’s weakness stems from over dependence on hot money with nearly 80 percent of its current account deficit being financed by short term loans rather than foreign direct investment. This ailment is compounded by political tribulations including the country’s first presidential election on the horizon and internal hostility in the coalition.

In South Africa, the GDP to is expected to dip below 2 per cent down this year from a peak of 5.6 per cent in 2006. The situation is worsened by strikes, unemployment levels at a high of 25 per cent and high poverty rates are further compounded by a widening current account deficit of 6.8 per cent. The government has initiated austerity measures to control fiscal deficit and boost exports but the looming elections for the African National Congress bring in the element of uncertainty. The government needs to implement austerity measures along with attempts to boost growth and exports and reduce both the deficits.

The Indonesian currency has lately coming under a great deal of pressure with its current account widening to its worst since the Asian crisis of the late 1990s. The depreciated currency is partly to blame for the rising inflation. The growth rate has slowed down with the manufacturing slowing down due to high inflation, the depreciating rupiah, higher interest rates and higher minimum wages. The economy is also vulnerable to the a third of government debt being owned by the external sector. Any structural reforms will need to wait till the new government takes office in 2014.

These economies are bracing for the tapering in their individual manner with India being confident bolstered by increased foreign exchange reserves and declining current account deficit. Bank Indonesia (BI) has raised interest rates several times in the recent past, South Africa has introduced measures to control fiscal deficit, create a climate of confidence and attempted to boost exports. Of the five, Turkey seems to be the most fragile. Turkey faces turbulence not only from the political strife but also the myopic economic policies adopted by the central bank to use foreign reserves to prop up the lira rather than tighten policy.  Closely following Turkey in fragility is Brazil. It’s weakness stems from inertia with Brazilian authorities biding time until after the elections to bring in the much needed structural reforms.

The fragility of these currencies is more to do with timing of the tapering and the winds of political change. These economies have either taken smaller measures than needed or shown indecisiveness in implementing difficult structural reforms to strengthen the economy despite being aware of the Fed’s intent of initiating tapering. In times of capital flows uncertainty, the differentiating characteristic of the ‘Fragile Five’ is the difference between a surplus and deficit economy. The ‘triple deficits’ is the key differentiator making these emerging economies the ‘fragile five’ – the current account deficit,  fiscal deficit and governance deficit.

Contributed by Prof.Swaha Shome and Prof. Davinder Suri (Faculty, IBS Mumbai)

Posted by Kishor Kumar Dash, an alumnus of IBS Hyderabad class of 2004. Kishor works as a Senior Consultant with a Product based Multinational IT Company. His view in the article is purely personal.

I was triggered to write this piece out of the below question raised by one of my friend and colleague in a casual discussion. The question was “Who do you support in this Parliament Election, AAP or Modi?”

So before I answer the question of my dear friend, let me give a perspective to the most debated topic of the year.

I am a common man and also a supporter of some of the points raised and adopted by the AAP since the inception of the party. The support even became stronger not only by me but also by many other people towards the AAP post to the spectacular performance by the party in the Delhi Assembly election. The referendum on asking the people of Delhi, “Should AAP form the Govt. with support of congress?”  impressed the people of India. This idea turned out to be very populist though the process was questioned by few intellectuals. Nevertheless, Arvind Kejriwal became a hero in the mind of aam admi.  The wave in support of the party seemed to be blowing all across the Nation attracting the people irrespective of caste, creed, gender and religion. The membership of the party and the financial contribution for the party grew multifold. Most importantly the party was also able to attract some influential people from different section of the society like business leaders, journalists, bureaucrats, social scientists and even politicians. The media also started recognizing the importance of AAP and the TV channels started having prime time debates focusing AAP as an alternative to traditional politics and most importantly projected AAP as a strong contender to the BJP lead by Narendra Modi especially in the urban segment of the country which is traditionally a vote bank of BJP. The party also became more confident and announced a big and ambitious plan to contest the 16^th Loksabha election in 300+ seats.

During all these positive development of AAP, somehow I was little worried and concerned. Because to me it looked like possibly Arvind Kejriwal and Team is in a hurry without evaluating the mess it could end up with by stupendous growth without any comprehensive structure and National Policy in place. Alas, my worries turned out to be true and so many things came out in public exposing the weakness of the party from various aspects. The party looked to be divided on various important policy perspectives like party’s ideology on Kashmir, economic and external affairs policy, internal democracy and so on.  Some of the recent decisions taken by the party (Free water, Subsidized electricity, Reversal of FDI in multibrand retail, unnecessary aggressive approach by some of its legislators/ministers) are highly questionable. Most importantly the party which has the USP as “Anticorruption” seems to be vulnerable by allowing some corrupt people joining the Party and by taking support of Congress (the king of corruption) to form the government in Delhi. Though Kejriwal is smart enough to diminish the charge of congress support issue by way of the referendum. But the party still needs to work on coming with a clear ideology on economics, education, reservation, external affairs, National security to name a few, with a focus on a building a new India which could be a super power by 2025. I don’t want AAP to be restricted as a local party in Delhi and elsewhere rather as a national party having presence all across the Nation strongly contending the BJP led by Narendra Modi and the diminishing Congress. Common man like me desperately need the AAP to grow slowly and steadily  (instead of stupendous growth with mess) with gaining experience on governance & politics, with a comprehensive and structured National Policy with a Vision of “Global Superpower India”  and most importantly setting a benchmark on how a politician and a legislator should behave, I repeat behave themselves. This would itself be a great addition to Indian democracy.

Coming next on Congress led by Rahul Gandhi (most over hyped Leader in India) which seems to be in the sinking boat for the battle 2014. You can actually make that observation from the question of my colleague who wants to opt between the BJP and AAP. Congress for him (for most of the common man) is completely out of context in 2014 election.

I am still not sure where Rahul Gandhi was, when there is huge question on UPA Govt on 2G Scam, Adarsh Scam, and Coalgate Scam. If he has the power to increase the LPG subsidy from 9 to 12 cylinders (within few minutes) then why was he NOT exercising this power to sack the people accused in 2G and Adarsh Scam. And also why is he silent on the alliance of Congress with RJD lead by Lalu Prasad Yadav who is accused of Fodder scam. I am really not interested to spend so much of time and energy on highlighting the in-efficiency and poor performance of Congress and UPA Govt as I know the readers of this article are pretty much aware of the contribution of Congress and the UPA Government lead by Dr. Manmohan Singh (Whom most of the young Indian considered to be an Idol at some point of time) to ensure that India becomes a Nation known for Corruption, High Inflation and Low Growth (bringing down the GDP growth rate to below 5%).

So for me Rahul Gandhi (for whom I have respect on some aspects) need to spend some time understanding the aspirations of Young India and do the homework on reforming the Congress Party which has now become  a symbol of Corruption, rather than  projecting himself and his party as a strong contender for 2014 Parliament Elections.

Finally coming to the BJP led by Mr. Narendra Modi, It is a no brainer for me considering Narendra Modi as my preferred Prime Minister of India after 2014 LS elections. Critics of Modi have always tried to dent his image by bringing in the 2002 Godhra incident to the limelight and ignoring his contribution on the inclusive growth and development of the State of Gujarat. The inclusive word is always the most debated topic against Mr. Modi by his Critics, but the 2013 Gujarat Assembly election result in Muslim dominated constituencies and the economic empowerment of the Gujarat Muslims (during Modi tenure) has proven the critics wrong on this and I dare to use the word inclusive in favor of Modi based on my research data on this.

Modi is always projected as a divisive leader by every opponent (including the Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh) without any conclusive evidence. But Modi was given clean chit by the SIT appointed by the Supreme Court of India, which was again reiterated in a recent verdict by the Magistrate court in Ahmedabad (in Gulbarga Case) by rejecting the protest petition on SIT findings. I would be among the first persons to consider Mr. Modi as a divisive and communal leader when there is specific evidence and verdict against him (by any court). But despite of several attempts by his opponent and critics there is not an iota of evidence (forget about verdict) against him related to his involvement in the Godhra Riots. So it is unfair to allege Modi for Godhra, considering the clean chit by SIT and Magistrate Court.

I do NOT want to be biased on the perceptions built by some of his opponents and critics; rather I want to use my intelligence to consider Mr. Modi as the most preferred Prime-Ministerial candidate for the 16^th Loksabha. Because, as a common man I want to see my Nation lead by a Leader who could provide a stable, inclusive and growth oriented governance model with a Vision to make my Nation as one of the Super powered Nation by 2025. Mr. Narendra Modi has the experience, proven track record of governance & economic growth and most importantly the potential to make that dream (making India a superpower) into reality. But for that, we all common man need to do our part as a Citizen of India and as a responsible voter, by providing a clear mandate in favor of him in 2014 LS election. When on one side, I strongly advocate for Modi based on his track record of growth and governance, on the other side I want him to be accountable to the people of India and most importantly he and his party the BJP should come clear on some of the regressive points like Khap Panchayat, moral policing etc.before the 2014 elections.

The Nation needs a strong decisive leader supported by a clear electorate mandate, who could fulfill the aspirations of young India to make India a Global superpower. But for that the leader should have the vision of Future India, have the experience of good governance, should have the gut to bite the bullet on getting rid of the populist subsidy culture and have a structured economic policy to contain inflation, generate massive employment opportunities and get back to 9-10 % GDP growth rate.

So to conclude, as a common man I would like to see in 2014,

1. A decisive verdict in favor of BJP led by Mr. Narendra Modi who could provide us a stable, inclusive, growth oriented, best in class governance with accountability and a vision of making India a resurgent superpower.
2. Followed by a steadily growing, experienced AAP with structured and comprehensive National Policy & Ideology. Should walk the talk on Corruption and set the benchmark of a modern democracy in India.
3. Reformed, rejuvenated and corruption free congress lead by young leaders like Rahul Gandhi, Jyotiraditya Scindia, Sachin Pilot etc, supported by experienced leaders like Mr. P Chidambaram.

To put in a nutshell, I would look forward to see a decisive government led by Mr. Narendra Modi complimented by a strong and constructive opposition in the form of AAP and Congress. Because the role of a constructive and responsible opposition is as important as the performing Government to lead our nation to become a Global Super Power.

Hope my dear friend got the answer. 🙂